Calculation of Annual Energy Production (AEP) and the contribution of Tolo 1 Wind Farm 72 MW in reducing carbon emissions using the Weibull Probability Distribution Method

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Safrizal, Moh. Khairudin, Rustam Asnawi

2025 IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science Vol. 1543 Issue 1 Conference paper Cited by 0

Abstract

Wind power generation faces operational complexities due to the irregular and unpredictable characteristics of wind velocity, which impacts electricity production consistency and grid management. This investigation employs Weibull probability analysis to assess the energy generation capabilities of Tolo 1 Wind Facility in South Sulawesi, Indonesia, incorporating turbine performance data and atmospheric measurements. Utilizing twenty Siemens SWT-3.6-130 turbines with Weibull coefficients (form factor = 2.35, scale parameter = 7.65 m/s), the projected yearly electricity output reaches 263.85 gigawatt-hours, achieving an exceptional utilization rate of 41.8% - substantially exceeding Indonesia's typical range of 25-35%. Environmentally, the installation prevents approximately 192,609 metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually (using a regional emission coefficient of 0.73 tCO2 per megawatt-hour), comparable to eliminating 46,000 automobiles from roadways. These outcomes validate wind technology's significance in Indonesia's strategic shift toward carbon neutrality by 2060. Proposed enhancements include implementing artificial intelligence-driven wind prediction systems and combined energy storage solutions to address power fluctuation challenges. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.

Affiliations

Department of Electrical Engineering, Universitas Negeri Yogyakarta, Indonesia; Department of Electrical Engineering, Universitas Islam Nahdlatul Ulama, Jepara, Indonesia