Firdian Makrufardi, Hsiao-Chi Chuang, Yuan-Chien Lin, Kin-Fai Ho, Kian Fan Chung, Marc Chadeau-Hyam, Desy Rusmawatiningtyas, Eggi Arguni, Indah Kartika Murni, Sheng-Chieh Lin
To estimate the risk projection of temperature on pediatric asthma severity and hospitalization under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) possible future climate scenarios using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) model. A retrospective study was conducted involving 102,160 pediatric asthma patients from the Taipei Medical University Clinical Research Database (TMUCRD). We utilized global climate model (GCM) outputs to project future temperature for each subject from optimistic (SSP126) to pessimistic (SSP585) projections. A multinomial logistic regression was used to examine the odds ratio of pediatric asthma severity and hospitalization. A 1 °C increase in 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year average temperatures was associated with 1.004-fold (95% CI: 1.003—1.005) and 1.332-fold (95% CI: 1.327—1.338), 1.004-fold (95% CI: 1.002—1.005) and 1.303-fold (95% CI: 1.298—1.308), and 1.005-fold (95% CI: 1.004—1.006) and 1.282-fold (95% CI: 1.278—1.287) increase in the OR for mild persistent and hospitalization of pediatric asthma. We observed a non-linear association between temperature under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 with moderate persistent pediatric asthma and pediatric asthma hospitalization, with the highest OR increases observed in 2033 at 33.4% and 32.3%, 27.6% and 32.3%, 29.1% and 32.4%, and 27.2% and 32.3%, respectively. Conclusion: Projected future temperature changes as a result of climate change may be associated with a possible increase in pediatric asthma severity and hospitalization in the coming years, with an expected increase of 8.0% and 2.5% per 1 °C increase, respectively. Pediatric asthma patients may be more susceptible to poorer outcomes under climate change in the future. (Table presented.) © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2026.
International Ph.D. Program in Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; Department of Child Health, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health, and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah Mada–Dr. Sardjito Hospital, Yogyakarta, Indonesia; Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Negeri Yogyakarta, Yogyakarta, Indonesia; School of Respiratory Therapy, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; Division of Pulmonary Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Shuang Ho Hospital, Taipei Medical University, New Taipei City, Taiwan; Cell Physiology and Molecular Image Research Center, Wan Fang Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; Graduate Institute of Medical Sciences, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Department of Civil Engineering, National Central University, Taoyuan City, Taiwan; JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; MRC Centre for Environment and Health Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Department of Pediatrics, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan; Division of Allergy, Asthma, and Immunology, Department of Pediatrics, Shuang Ho Hospital, Taipei Medical University, New Taipei City, Taiwan
